Mellemøstkrisen - MOU (Memorandum of Understanding)

 Nedenfor den fulde tekst af forståelsespapiret mellem USA og Iran, der skulle give 60 dages respit/våbenhvile mellem de to stridende parter. Således skulle søtrafikken gennem Hormuz-strædet være sikret - i hvert fald i 60 dage. Det førte straks til fald i oliepriserne (og stigning i aktiekurser). Men spørgsmålet var: Holdet aftalen? Og var USA gået med til "for meget" i forhold til, hvad Iran gav? Det mente en del intern opposition i USA - ikke alene fra Demokraterne, men også høge i det republikanske parti. 
    Og der var stor utilfredshed fra israelsk side. Premierminister Benjamin Netanyuaku fortsatte da også med bombninger i Sydlibanon, angiveligt for endeligt at få gjort op med Hizbollah. Problemet med denne krigstaktik var, at der var alt for mange civile tab. Den israelske "reaktion på islamisk terror" var ikke proportional. - Hvad der også blev i stigende grad kritiseret fra amerikansk side, bl.a. af vicepræsident JD Vance. Den stærke alliance mellem USA og Israel blev testet i alvorlig grad. 

De fortsatte israelske bombardementer var imod den indgåede aftale. Iranerne forlangte med fuld ret ifølge aftalen (herunder), at Sydlibanon situationen skulle afklares, da det jo klart fremgår af aftalen. Som modsvar begyndte Iranerne at skabe tvivl om den frie gennemsejling af Hormuzstrædet. 

Krigsskadeserstatningerne på 300 mia$ blev kritiseret voldsomt i USA, men var endda næppe nok til virkelig at imødekomme de voldsomme ødelæggelser. Krigen var klart "a war of choice" for Treump og den israelske premierminister/regering. 

Men amerikanerne fik ikke meget ud af det. Selv om en stor del af den politiske elite i Iran blev sat ud af spillet, så skete der ikke regimeskifte. Præstestyret fortsatte ved roret, nu med den tidligere ayatollah Khameneis søn Mojtabe Khamenei som "supreme leader". 14-punktaftalen blev dog fra iransk side underskrevet af den iranske præsident. Det "uigennemskuelige" iranske magtsystem, hvor også elitehæren Revolutionsgarden spillede en afgørende rolle, var en lidt af en gåde for Vesten. Man forstod ikke dens retorik og Verdensbillede. For ireanerne var krigen endnu et udslag af Postkolonial imperialisme fra Vestens side. 

Der var ikke meget tvivl om, hvem der "tabte krigen". Situationen i Mellemøsten var nu en anden. Iran havde opdaget, hvilket "weapon of mass destruction", man besad med kontrollen over Hormuzstrædet, hvorigennem en femtedel af Verdens olieforsyning løber. En blokering af strædet kan kaste verden ud i økonomisk kaos. 

Men det førte også til en hurtigere omstilling til grøn og vedvarende energi, især soleenergi og vind, der havde vist sig at blive konkurrencedygtige alternativer til de fossile brændsler. En omstilling, der dog tager tid. 

Præsident Trump, der stod overfor et midtvejsvalg til Kongressen i november 2026, var vred på sine NATO-allierede. Han mente de skulle komme til undsætning. Men da de ikke på forhånd var konsulteret, følte de sig ikke forpligtede til at hjælpe med en krig, der var ensidigt igangsat af USA og den tætte allierede Isarel.
    Trump håndterede den diplomatiske krise i forholdet til europæerne på en overordentlig kluntet måde. Da den tyske forbundskansler Merz sagde, at "USA var blevet ydmyget", reagerede han med at trække tusindevis af amerikanske aoldater ud af Tyskland. Han kastede sig ud i meget udiplomatisk mundhuggeri med lederne af Spanien og Italien. De to lande ville ikke tillade amerikansk brug af baser i landet i USAs førelse af luftkrigen imod Iran. 

Rusland fik fordel af krigen. Sanktionerne mod russisk olie blev droppet, og priserne på olie steg kraftigt, så russisk økonomi fik en tilførsel af valuta, der faldt på et tørt sted. Landet var ved at blive udmarvet af den årelange krig i Ukraine.

Den virkelige "vinder" - udover Iran - var Kina. 
    Kina havde siddet på sidelinjen og ikke foretaget sig meget - udover kommentarer og måske pres på parterne til at indgå en aftale. Kina var ramt på sin olieimport, men var langt fremme i udviklingen og brugen af alternative energiformer, f.eks. solceller. Helt afgørende og styrkende for Kinas magtposition var dog, at krigens elendige resultat for amerikanerne var yderligere et eksempel på nedbrydningen af Pax Americana og den amerikanske verdensorden. I stedet vil Kina sætte en udvikling i gang frem imod en alternativ verdensorden. Det "globale Syd" skal styrkes i forhold til den svindende amerikanske magt.
    Den amerikanske valutas dominans skal f.eks. svækkes igennem en styrkelse af den kinesiske valuta som alternativ. Det vil mindske USAs muligheder for at bruge økonomiske sanktioner som magtmidler.  Kina forestiller sig en mere multilateral Verden med mere end èn supermagt. Irankrigen og følgerne af den ses som et skridt i den retning. 
     

AFTALEN (Memorandum of Understanding) mellem USA og Iran:
(Dansk annotation)

Below is the official text in full (kilde: CNN.com):

The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have jointly agreed in good faith on [ __ date] on the following:

1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.

2 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in maximum 60 days, extendable with mutual consent.

4 — Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

5 — Upon the signing of this MOU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge, for 60 days only, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa. The traffic of commercial vessels will immediately start, and considering the need for removing the technical and military obstacles, and demining by the Islamic Republic of Iran will be instated within 30 days. The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialog with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and the sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz.

6 — The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.

7 — The United States of America undertakes to terminate all types of sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United Nations Security Council resolutions, IAEA Board of Governors resolutions, and all unilateral US sanctions, primary and secondary, in an agreed upon schedule as part of the final deal. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America acknowledge the critical importance of the sanctions termination issue above mentioned, and expressed their intentions to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

8 — The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph seven, with the minimum methodology to be down blended on site under the supervision of the IAEA. The two parties also agreed to discuss the issue of enrichment and other mutually agreed matters related to the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear needs, based on a satisfactory framework being agreed upon in the final deal. The final deal will confirm the provisions of this paragraph. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran acknowledge the critical importance of the nuclear issues above mentioned. They express their intention to immediately address these issues in the negotiations in order to achieve mutual agreement on them.

9 — Pending the final deal, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree to maintain the status quo. The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region.

10 — The United States of America undertakes that immediately upon the signing of this MOU and until the termination of sanctions, US Department of Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude oil, petroleum products and derivatives, and all associated services, including banking transactions, insurances, transportation, etc.

11 — The United States of America undertakes to make fully available for use the frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran upon the implementation of this MOU. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will mutually agree on the procedures related to the release of these funds during negotiations. Such funds, whether retained in the original account or transferred, shall be made fully usable for payment to any ultimate beneficiary designated by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America undertakes to issue all necessary licenses and authorizations accordingly.

12 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran agree that an executive mechanism will be established to monitor the successful implementation of this MOU and the future compliance of the final deal.

13 — After signing this MOU, and subject to the beginning of the implementation of paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 of this MOU, and the continuing implementation of these measures, the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran will start negotiations regarding the final deal exclusively on the other paragraphs.

14 — The final deal will be endorsed by a binding UNSC resolution.