Vælgeranalyse med hjælp af AI - kan den kunstige intelligens tilføje noget interessant?

 I mit arbejde med at se muligheder for AI til analyse af komplekse samfundsspørgsmål har jeg stillet spørgsmål til den igangværende amerikanske valgkamp, hvor en del analytikere pt er optaget af spørgsmålet om, hvorfor Harriskampagnen - efter en flyvende start - synes at være gået noget i stå en måned før valget 5.11. Hun mangler at flytte nogle pct moderate mainstream-voters. Eller er problemet snarere, at hun har stødt dele af Demokraternes venstrefløj fra sig. Hvad kan gøres?

Jeg spurgte: what can kamala harris do to persuade mainstream voters to vote for her?

ChatGPT sagde:

To persuade mainstream voters to support her, Kamala Harris could focus on several key strategies:

1. Highlighting Bipartisan Achievements: Emphasizing her work on legislation that has garnered bipartisan support can demonstrate her ability to work across the aisle and appeal to moderate voters.

2. Focusing on Key Issues: Addressing concerns like the economy, healthcare, and public safety in a way that resonates with everyday voters. Presenting clear, actionable plans can help build trust and interest.

3. Connecting Personally: Sharing personal stories that illustrate her values and experiences can make her more relatable and humanize her in the eyes of voters.

4. Community Engagement: Actively engaging with diverse communities and listening to their concerns can help her build a broader base of support.

5. Utilizing Media Effectively: Leveraging social media and traditional media to communicate her message and connect with voters, especially younger demographics, can increase her visibility and appeal.

6. Emphasizing Unity and Progress: Positioning herself as a candidate who promotes unity and collective progress can attract voters looking for a positive vision for the future.

7. Addressing Misinformation: Proactively countering misinformation about her policies and positions can help clarify her stance and reduce any negative perceptions.

By combining these strategies, Harris can work to build a coalition of mainstream voters who feel her vision aligns with their needs and aspirations.

Du sagde:

what if the immigration issue is really what worries voters?

ChatGPT sagde:

If immigration is a key concern for voters, Kamala Harris could adopt several strategies to address this issue effectively:

1. Clear and Comprehensive Policy: Presenting a clear, detailed immigration plan that addresses border security, pathways to citizenship, and support for immigrants can help reassure voters about her stance.

2. Focus on Economic Impact: Highlighting how immigration contributes to the economy—through job creation and innovation—can shift the narrative to a more positive perspective.

3. Emphasizing Law and Order: Acknowledging the importance of law enforcement in immigration while promoting humane treatment of immigrants can appeal to voters concerned about safety.

4. Community Outreach: Engaging with communities directly affected by immigration issues, listening to their concerns, and showing empathy can build trust and understanding.

5. Addressing Misinformation: Actively countering myths and misinformation about immigration can help clarify her positions and alleviate voter fears.

6. Bipartisan Solutions: Advocating for bipartisan solutions to immigration reform can demonstrate her willingness to work across party lines, appealing to moderate voters.

7. Personal Stories: Sharing stories of immigrants who contribute positively to society can humanize the issue and foster empathy among voters.

By addressing immigration thoughtfully and proactively, Harris can reassure voters and potentially turn their concerns into support for her policies.

Du sagde:

according to a New York Times opinion writer (NYT 9.10.24) her problem with that category of voters is :

 the rallies often don’t seem to provide enough space for the organic moment, for the one-on-one human interaction, for a skeptical voter to really see who she is as a person. What’s desperately missing are more town hall-style events or more unmanaged, unscripted interactions with everyday Americans. Some of the most memorable and most humanizing moments for presidential candidates happen in these smaller settings, as in 2008 when John McCain corrected a supporter who said she didn’t trust Obama because “he’s an Arab” and when Hillary Clinton teared up talking to a small group of voters about how hard it was being on the campaign trail. While that year’s Republican National Convention was going on, Obama made stops at more intimate settings to get up close and personal with voters in battleground states. At a farm in Ohio, he said, “They’re going to try to make you scared of me,” but, “You spread the word out there, don’t let them fool you.” His strategy was to not only counterprogram the R.N.C. but also to countervail the skepticism about him that Republicans were stoking. His direct engagement with voters helped to humanize and demystify him. That’s what Harris needs in the homestretch of this campaign. There is risk in this, I realize, that the campaign seems reluctant to take. But in its efforts, it seems, to shield Harris from “gotcha” moments, it’s also robbing her of chances to have transcendent moments in which her appeal crosses over from those who strongly support her to those who remain wary

 is that correct?

ChatGPT sagde:

Yes, that analysis captures an important aspect of effective campaigning, especially for candidates like Kamala Harris. Engaging in more intimate, unscripted settings—such as town halls—can help humanize her and build genuine connections with voters. These moments allow her to showcase her personality, respond to concerns directly, and demonstrate empathy in a way that larger rallies may not.

The comparison to Barack Obama's strategy in 2008 is particularly relevant; his approach of connecting with voters in personal settings helped to counter skepticism and foster trust. While there are risks in being more open to "gotcha" moments, those risks can be outweighed by the potential rewards of building a more relatable image.

Incorporating more of these interactions could indeed help Harris resonate with undecided voters, allowing her to share her vision and values in a more meaningful way. It could bridge the gap between her and voters who might currently feel wary or disconnected from her campaign.

Det forekommer som om, analysen kører noget i ring.

 De spørgsmål, der stilles til robotten, reflekteres tilbage i generelle svar uden særlig meget indhold.

De samme generaliserede argumenter gentages.
    Hele spørgsmålet omkring den tiltagende fremmedgørelse af Demokraternes venstrefløj (de unge på universiteterne, Alexandria  Cortez , Bernie Sanders m.fl.), samt de mange med arabisk baggrund, der kan udgøre tunge på vægtskålen nogle steder i Nordøst. Det er altså Palæstina-spørgsmålet, hvor der er frustrationer over, at Biden-administrationen og Kamala Harris' troskab over for sit arbejde her, som sætter begrænsning på hendes muligheder for at agere selvstændigt i sagen.